Prospect Roundup: Mock Drafts (And Other Ramblings)

kYpLTXwK

By: Burke Granger

With the 2016 MLB Draft now officially less than a month away, the buzz is starting to heat up with multiple sites posting mock drafts and top 100 lists.  We’re not going to be one of those sites.

First off, I don’t have an issue with sites that post mock drafts or prospect lists.  I’ve done them in years past.  They’re fun to write, they’re fun to read and frankly, they generate a TON of traffic.

I’ll start first with the my logic behind why I’m not going to do a list because it’s easier to articulate.

We at Prospect Junkies have been able to get eyes on dozens of players who will be selected in the first 3 rounds in June.  If we haven’t done a write up on them yet, we will soon.  For a two man crew that includes just myself and Mario Phillips (our West Coast Scout), I’m incredibly proud of what we’ve accomplished.  That said, best case scenario, those dozens will only make up half of the first 50 picks.

Thus how can I say that Florida’s Buddy Reed, whom I’ve seen 3 times, is better than Auburn’s Anfernee Grier who I haven’t seen him play live and in person?  The answer is that I simply cannot.

Now for the mock draft quandary.  While I mentioned that the MLB Draft is less than a month away, I think it’s actually still a little early for a team to be strongly linked to a player.  Also, I’m not an insider.  That hurts my ego to admit, but if I talk to anyone associated with a team, it’s an area scout. Area scouts have the same geographic limitations that I do.  Those scouts sees way more guys than I do and may have the ear of their scouting director, but the player pool they use to evaluate and hand in to their employer is restricted to the handful of states in which they cover.  I may talk to the occasional cross checker, but they’re not telling me who they’re picking.

Mock drafts are also hard.  The NFL draft is based on need, thus football prognosticators can deduct that Team X needs Position Y, thus they’ll likely take Player A, B, or C.  In the MLB Draft, teams usually draft on need as well.  It just so happens that what every MLB team needs is the best player available.  Sure there are some trends from which you can draw upon but I don’t put too much weight in them given the relatively small sample sizes and high front office turnover rate.

I want to reiterate that I don’t fault anyone for doing mock drafts and prospect lists.  There are industry leaders much better connected than myself, and I don’t doubt that they do get quality information from key decision makers in the process.  If that’s the case, by all means post that information.  As a reader, I dig it.  I also appreciate that often times it’s not the prospect writer’s decision to post a mock draft, but rather the site owner or managing editor.  It’s part of the job, I get it.

For those reasons, I’ve had some trouble reconciling my feelings on whether I’d post a mock draft this year.  Like I said, they’re fun to write and fun to read.  How I’ve decided to tackle this is challenge is to do what I’ve done below.  Hudson Belinsky of Baseball America, and Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline posted mock drafts last week.  They’re two of those well connected and informed writers I mentioned earlier.  I’ve recreated their lists below because they’re free to non-subscribers.  Go check them out because there is valuable commentary that I didn’t include here.  The links are below.

I’ll do this side by side comparison from time to time because I think these looks can help us gain a consensus on who the industry feels are the top players in the draft and it gives me a chance to comment on these projections and team/player matches without speculating on a mock draft myself that will no doubt be less informed than the ones below.

Below you’ll find several links to the scouting reports (or in some cases just video) we have done in preparation for the 2016 MLB Draft.

Baseball America
Hudson Belinsky
May 13, 2016

MLB.com
Jonathan Mayo
May 12, 2016

1

Phillies

 Phillies Logo

A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer

2

Reds

Web Update Images

Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer

A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida

3

Braves

 39ab1-atlanta

Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas (Kan.)

Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) H.S.

4

Rockies

 772fe-colorado

Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS

Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS

5

Brewers

 e8f7a-milwaukee

Corey Ray, OF, Louisville

Delvin Perez, SS, Intl. Baseball Academy (P.R.)

6

Athletics

 Web Update Images

Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee

Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee

7

Marlins

 1027

Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) H.S.

Corey Ray, OF, Louisville

8

Padres

 49d8f-sandiego

Delvin Perez, SS, Intl. Baseball Academy (P.R.)

Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence HS (Ala.)

9

Tigers

 Tigers Logo

Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Calif.)

Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas (Kan.)

10

White Sox

 White Sox Logo

Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS N.Y.

Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade Prep (Calif.)

11

Mariners

 Web Update Images

Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade Prep (Calif.)

Buddy Reed, OF, Florida

12

Red Sox

 aa1c4-boston

Zack Collins, C, Miami

Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran (Ga.)

13

Rays

 dd854-tampabay

Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence HS (Ala.)

Josh Lowe, 3B, Pope HS (Ga.)

14

Indians

 Web Update Images

Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East

Zack Collins, C, Miami

15

Twins

 Web Update Images

Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State

Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State

16

Angels

 Web Update Images

T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh

Alex Kirilloff, OF, Plum HS, Pittsburgh

17

Astros

 b8695-houston

Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville

Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS N.Y.

18

Yankees

 3ds_yankees85

Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt

Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East

19

Mets

 94ab0-nymets

Will Craig, 3B, Wake Forest

Will Craig, 3B, Wake Forest

20

Dodgers

 Web Update Images

Nolan Jones, 3B, Holy Ghost Prep (Pa.)

Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College

21

Blue Jays

 Web Update Images

Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford

Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS (Calif.)

22

Pirates

 afece-pittsburgh

Taylor Trammell, OF, Mount Paran (Ga.)

Nolan Jones, 3B, Holy Ghost Prep (Pa.)

23

Cardinals

 ba6be-stlouis

Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia

Connor Jones, RHP, Virginia

24

Padres

 Web Update Images

Josh Lowe, 3B, Pope HS (Ga.)

Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford

25

Padres

 Web Update Images

Jared Horn, RHP, Vintage HS (Calif.)

Will Benson, OF, Westminster (Ga.)

26

White Sox

 White Sox Logo

Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State

Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail (Wis.)

27

Orioles

 Web Update Images

Joe Rizzo, 3B, Oakton (Va.)

Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia

28

Nationals

 63fab-washington

Drew Mendoza, 3B, Lake Minneola, (Fla.)

Drew Mendoza, 3B, Lake Minneola, (Fla.)

29

Nationals

 63fab-washington

Alex Kirilloff, OF, Plum HS, Pittsburgh

Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Stoneman Douglas Fla.

30

Rangers

 Web Update Images

Will Benson, OF, Westminster (Ga.)

Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia

31

Mets

 94ab0-nymets

Buddy Reed, OF, Florida

Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Vanderbilt

32

Dodgers

 Web Update Images

Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma

T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh

33

Cardinals

 ba6be-stlouis

Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia

Forrest Whitley, RHP, Alamo Heights, Texas

34

Cardinals

 ba6be-stlouis

Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail (Wis.)

Brandon Marsh, OF, Buford (Ga.)

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s